Tony Bloom and his betting empire

Who would have thought that a poker player and a ‘Moneyball’ style of recruitment could turn a south coast seaside club into one of the best run football club in the Premier League. Tony Bloom a British Entrepreneur has since gone on a bit of a mission to own clubs including Belgium club Union Saint-Gilloise and is in the process of trying to acquire the Hearts of Scotland, to challenge the duo of Celtic and Rangers.

Brighton and close mates Brentford, are two teams who have outperformed expectations since being promoted to the Premier League against Wigan on April 2017, and Brentford in May 2021. Brighton are seen as a feeder club by many but are can they make a brace into Europe and with recent more ambitious goals, do they still have a ceiling, can they compete with the Premier League elite.

They are shifting from buying undervalued players with high potential to sell at a profit, to investing more in retaining their top talent, and are spending more. Their existing approach works as they have always have a backup plan in place when big players like Caicedo decide to leave the club, with newcomers like 20 year old Carlos Baleba from Lille who fitted in fast and after 1 year is already one of their best players. To help the cause, they are in a healthy shape with PSR compared to Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle, Man Utd, who are a bit stretched in the area.

From 20/21 to 23/24, Brighton pocketed over €136 net profit per season and this summer spent €182m, and benefited from last gasp spending by competing clubs like Newcastle to meet the new 30 June PSR deadline day. Their return on player investment has paid off, as they have consistently progressed and shot up the league at a growing rate and have never faced relegation, with three top half rankings, over the last four years.

In June, after giving De Zerbi the boot, a bit unfairly, they straight way found a fitting replacement in young ambitious German (31 year old) Fabian Hürzeler, with only 1+ years of management experience, a bit of a risky move, which could pay off. They are a growing club and become a bit of a force.

What is their approach to player recruitment and player fit?

Brighton first and foremost, do not have a one-size-fits all approach, but the key attribute they look for is technical competency and they aren’t too focused on things like athleticism and are more interested in attributes that make the player fit-for-the-position.

There are tons of metrics out there to determine this, the most effective metrics to measure technical competency is pass completion under pressure, shooting accuracy and dribbling mastery, hard to get that data, more on that below.

Brighton have taken data to another level in the Premier League, the idea is simple, they have a database of players that they track and feed their algorithm with players stats and then narrow down the players that fit the style they are looking for in each position, so a left back would be need to have high intensity and fitness to cover ground compared to an attacking player with high technical competency to beat a man down the wing and creative flare. Once they have narrowed down their list, they scour the market and select those that fit the bill, and that cost only a small fraction of future worth. Their equation is:

• Positional need identified e.g. left back
• Coach attributes + list of available players from database
• Availability: Right price point, time, location
• Scouting networks verify that the data adds up and fact check
• Culture fit and character attributes (more subjective and values based)

The data saves the scouts travel time, backs up their plans with data so they are not looking everywhere and helps them to identify talent fast (which saves them money), specifically in areas where no one is looking in underserved and underrated markets, essentially they have a lean, agile and proactive model of recruitment.

Many clubs track players like Brighton but they have a historical and the largest dataset, so this gives them that competitive edge. Caicedo who was signed for €5m in 2021 at 19 years old always dreamt of playing for Man Utd, Brighton were the club who first showed interest and he used them as a stepping stone to get to Chelsea, after a bit of bidding war with Arsenal and Liverpool, which drove up his price. He was already sought after in South America but not known in Europe, and it was Dan Ashworth who did the leg work of travelling to Ecuador to make the signing, where he had to meet his uncle and convince him to sign, so factors like culture and language, come into play.

Which is Brighton’s most exciting player in recent times?

Kaoru Mitoma, who is famous for writing his thesis on dribbling, is the most valuable Japanese player and a Brighton player who only costs €3m, that alone is some seriously good business, but doesn’t mean he is the best. Mitoma’s brand of football is dynamic, positive and he is a inverted winger who likes to play on the front foot and drive at the team, beat a man and creat space, he reminds me a bit of De Bryune in how he commands the game and in his ability to twist and turn but lacks a little end product.

I have put him in the mix with my top 10 dribblers in the world. He is joint top for progressive caries. He has great awareness, tracks back well and great at one on ones. Under Herzeler they will play a mix of dynamic ‘possession based’ football, a high line as well and will look to sit deep to close the game out or against better teams. From watching him he likes open play, as he is fast down the wings and likes to come into a central position. His high intensity style helps when tracking back, pressing and in transition. The areas I think he should add and improve in his game is his tackling, crossing and all round end product (final passes, shots) to be even close to the best.

Who are the top performing dribblers?

I used Opta & fbref data, and looked at player stats per 90 minutes, to view how the best dribblers compared. To be fair, Kaoru Mitoma wasn’t far off to these world class (?) technical players, the cream of the crop.

Messi is undoubtedly still considered one of the best technical players in the world (ever?), leads the way in all attacking stats, albeit in an inferior league at Inter Miami, but still he is older now.

Olise at 22 is very impressive and ranks higher than Mbappe on assists and shot-creating actions (chances) and equal on goals.

Ballon d’or leading candidate Vinicius Junior tops the charts for progressive carries, and loves to take his team up the pitch with his fast counter style, but could add more goals and assists, although not bad for a winger. Musiala a similar but more intricate player has the highest 82% pass completion, and the highest take-ons, his low centre of gravity reminds me a little of Messi in how he weeves himself through players, impressive for a player who is 6 foot.

De Bryune makes the most progressive passes, is a creator of chances (most shot-creating actions and joint top in assists). Saka is third highest in creating a shot and at his best when he has space to take on a man come infield and curl one in from the right, and is a great set piece taker, crosser and at drawing fouls. Yamal is young and close to the top performing players and very hard to handle due to his unpredictable speed and low centre of gravity and has a lot of pace but I think can add more goals and assists to his game, he is the one to watch for me for me.

Which players have been the biggest success financially for Brighton?

Brighton made over €260 profit on 5 players including Ben White who was a product of Southampton’s academy originally, and Mitoma is valued at close to €50m.

What methods do they use to recruit players?

1. High priority: Recruit young with bags of potential for growth, easy to adapt to the the premier league, undervalued and above average with the right attributes
2. Medium priority: Buy players from outside UK and Rest of the World through scouting networks, specifically in undervalued markets with little to no experience in top 5 leagues
3. Low priority: Build up their academy players

Caicedo who brighton signed in February 2021 and sold for €116 to Chelsea as a replacement for Kante (his role model), came from Independiente del Baile, Ecuador (a population of 18 million) and the club are widely known for producing some of the top talent in the country. They shot to fame after winning the the Copa Sudamericana in 2019 and 2022. They recently sold Justin Lerma who is 16 years old to Borussia Dortmund.

At the age of 14 in 2016 whilst playing for Colorados Jaipadida, part of a military football club in the capital of Quito, was left without a club due to his team getting relegated and severed. He was sent on a trial with several clubs including Barcelona in Guayaquil and Mushuc Runa and was rejected partly because he couldn’t afford to pay for food or accommodation. He managed to secure a trial at Independiente del Baile at the same age but suffered a ruptured cruciate ligament in his knee in 2017. He was out for a year and then managed the under 18’s side in 2019, and was known for his athleticism, he progressed and helped them win in the Copa Sudamerica and compete in the the Champions League of South America, the Copa Libertadores, beating Flamengo 5-0.

Another few factors along with is Ashworth who travelled and had a large network in South America, he recruited a lot of unknown players including Alexis Mac Allister for €8 and sold to Liverpool for €42. His tactic was to spread the next wide and not limit themselves to EU/home territory but to gain access to countries in South America who have produced some of the best players of our time. Argentino’s Juniors was the club that a young and hungry 16 year old Maradona played at, and home to Carlos Mac Allister (Alexis’s dad). Other countries recruited from include Belgium, Spain, Japan, Zambia and Austria.

How will they fare in the future?

I think they will change their approach slightly, why change what works but I don’t think they will sell their best players anymore as much as before. Now that they have Fabian Herzeler, the youngest Premier League permanent manager at 31 years of age I think he fits their style of play.

Fabian is a dynamic, bright and new manager with 1+ years of coaching experience since opting to be a player/coach instead of continuing the player career path. He took over at St Pauli after the manager was sacked, and will play front-foot possession based football and look to dominate and control the play, whilst adapting to each opponent.

Clearly, Brighton are committed to taking heavy bets (as Tony Bloom is the owner of betting company The Lizard), will scout in under-scouted, undervalued and diversified markets, and will continue with data-backed recruitment.

Will they continue to recruit from outside the top 5 leagues?

They purchased two players, Yakubeh Minteh from Newcastle who was a Dan Ashworth (ex Newcastle and Brighton) sold due to PSR, as well as Mats Wieffer, both players were at Feyennord. Georginio Rutter came from Championship club Leeds and is a relatively good value signing for a striker, both players show good potential but are risks. Other unknown players came from Germany, Turkey, Scotland, Norway and Sweden.

Can Brighton get into Europe?

Can they rival Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Man Utd? Yes, Will they get into Europe places, I doubt it. They are on track but I think they are in European place contention but will finish just below between 8-10, as I’m not sure if they have enough to push on.

They play decent football, there last matches against Newcastle and Wolves, showed that ultimately they have one player on form, Welbeck, who had has five goals, four in five games, but I think they have been slightly lucky, and the y will likely face a bit of a dip, but let’s see. I think a lot will depend on form and if they continue to sell off their best players or invest to break into Europe.

Sources: Skillscorner, Transfermarkt, fbref